A few days ago, I walked into a KFC. They had no chicken. The reason, when I asked, was a shortage of cooking gas. This wasn’t much of a mystery to solve. Cooking gas doesn't just disappear, so something upstream must have gone wrong. Several things, actually. All of which stem from a war in the Persian Gulf.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been making headlines for weeks. Rising fuel prices, rising market panic, rising global tension. All of this is stealing the spotlight. Yet, behind the politicians and pundits, something quieter is happening. A domino effect of shortages, price spikes and supply failures. Most people haven’t connected these to a conflict they're already tired of hearing about.

And that's the thing about distance. The further away a crisis feels, the less we look for it at home. Nestled between Iran, Oman, and the UAE, the Strait of Hormuz is a vulnerable shipping lane that spans only a few dozen miles at its narrowest point.  So, when it closes, the instinct is to think: fuel prices, news cycle, not my problem.

The effects of this, however, do not follow that logic. They have already worked their way to us. Through supply chains and shipping routes, they are quietly manifesting in our lives. Hiding in plain sight on your receipt, your waiting list, your wardrobe.

Here are 5 things you didn’t know were caused by this blockade-

1. The helium deficit More than a third of the world’s helium supply comes from Qatar, travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. While people may have noticed the disappearance of balloons from parties and festivals, the problem is far more widespread. The manufacturing of semiconductors is heavily dependent on helium, as a coolant and for precise fabrication. Silicon production is facing a bottleneck, and this disrupts the production of microchips used in everyday devices. The greatest concern, however, lies in healthcare. MRI scanners, used to map the inside of a body, rely on helium to maintain ultra-low temperatures. Manufacturers in East Asian countries- China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea- source helium mainly from the Middle East and are the most vulnerable to disruptions in supply.
   

2. Dual Crisis in the Beverage Industry

The beverage industry has suffered supply shortages in two of its key elements, aluminium and carbon dioxide. Without aluminium to shape the billions of cans consumed daily, producers are facing higher costs. Current estimates suggest the blockade has impacted the production of around 10% of the world's aluminium, and consequently, prices have mirrored this drop, increasing by a similar margin. On the other hand, carbon dioxide is used to create the effervescence in soft drinks. It is a byproduct of fertiliser manufacturing. While the shortage of the latter made global headlines, this side effect has gone unnoticed. Carbon dioxide is also used in packaging, brewing and as dry ice. Every step of the journey from farm to shelf is touched by this deficit.

3. The scarcity of a sweet trend In 2023, a viral video sparked a global sensation surrounding Dubai chocolate. Today, however, getting your hands on a bar is noticeably harder and more expensive. A major ingredient in the making of this chocolate is pistachios. Iran is the world’s second largest producer of this crop. When the war started, Iranian exports of food were halted, and this included pistachios.  Added to this, a down year caused further shortages. The cost of pistachios has risen by approximately 50%. The green filling that made the Dubai chocolate famous is now scarce. Chocolatiers have either stopped production or passed increasing costs directly to consumers. This is yet another casualty of geopolitics.

4. The crisis in apparel Everybody knows that the world is facing an oil crisis. Polyester is a product made directly from oil. Yet, a lot of people have missed connecting this to a dawning clothing crisis. Sudden pressure on substitutes and a rise in clothing prices have shown that this situation is on a path straight into our wardrobes. Only 12% of polyester used in clothing is recycled; the rest is oil dependent. Moreover, other chemicals and dyes manufactured in the Middle East are also scarce. Retailers are currently shielded from the brunt of the shortfall by forward buying. Stock has already been produced and is being sold at fixed prices. Yet, a mill in India has reported a fall in production from 10,000m a day to less than 4000m. Experts predict demand destruction of clothing to follow shortly. The problem is already here, and the effects are on their way.

5. The saffron monopoly, broken Known as "red gold" for its high market value, saffron has a highly concentrated supply chain. Iran produces approximately 90% of the spice. While this fragile monopoly has been of concern to many economists, its recent fracturing has led to an even larger problem. Food, pharma, and cosmetic brands are all struggling with the high costs, and absolutely no alternative ingredients to fall back on. Moreover, many traders across the world used to act like intermediaries. After importing saffron from Iran, it was rebranded as ‘local’ and sold at premium rates. As a result, shoppers remain oblivious to this geopolitical connection, wondering why their "homegrown" supply has abruptly dried up.

   
   

Ultimately, borders are just lines on a map, but supply chains are the invisible threads holding our economy together. When one of these threads snaps, in the Persian Gulf, the unravelling happens in local shops, hospitals, and closets. We may like to believe we live in a local economy, but the reality is we only shop in one.